‘Israel’s enemies want us to lose’: Decoding the midnight warning that shows Netanyahu is under pressure

Jerusalem: Making a final appeal to Israeli voters ahead of October 27 polls, the country’s first general election since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that his opponents could bring a dangerous left-wing government to power.

A total of 7,331,981 eligible voters are expected to choose among candidates from 34 parties competing for seats in the Knesset (Israel’s parliament). The result will decide whether Netanyahu can secure another term or whether an Opposition alliance led by former Israel Defence Forces (IDF) chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot can form the next government.

The election is taking place as Israelis are divided over responsibility for the October 7 attack, which exposed serious security failures, and the independence of the country’s democratic institutions and judiciary.

Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister for 19 years across multiple terms, has led his coalition government through a full four-year term, an uncommon achievement in Israel’s unstable political system. He now faces a strong challenge from Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which has led several opinion polls, along with three other Zionist Opposition parties.

Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad, Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu and Yair Golan’s Democrats have joined Eisenkot’s party in challenging the Likud-led bloc. Polls suggest that the four Opposition parties could collectively win more seats than Netanyahu’s alliance. However, neither side is projected to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.

National security warning

Netanyahu has sought to present the election as a choice between his leadership and a left-leaning government that could depend on Arab parties for support. He has argued that such an alliance would be dangerous for Israel.

“Israel’s enemies want us to lose because that would pave the way for a dangerous left-wing government led by Eisenkot and Lieberman, with Yair Golan and the Arab parties. The way to stop them is to go out and vote only Likud,” he posted in a late-night message on Monday on X.

The Opposition has built its campaign around accountability for the October 7 attack and a demand for an independent commission of inquiry into the security failures that preceded it. Eisenkot, a former military chief regarded as a security hawk, has accused Netanyahu of putting his political interests ahead of the country’s security.

“Benjamin Netanyahu will conclude his role immediately following the election results that will take place tomorrow and the establishment of the next government, which will be carried out expeditiously. We will ensure that this is how it will be. The people of Israel will elect a prime minister whose considerations will always be for the good of Israel, who will never act out of political interests at the expense of Israel's security and the fighters of the IDF,” he wrote in his final message ahead of Tuesday’s vote.

Liberman has also urged voters to back a change in leadership, presenting the election as an opportunity to build a stronger and more equal state.

Posting a picture with his grandson on the eve of polling, Liberman called for equal military or civilian service, civil marriages and a common core curriculum in schools. He said he wanted his grandson to grow up in a “thriving, Zionist, sane, and strong State of Israel” and urged voters to turn out for the sake of future generations.

Golan has called for an independent inquiry into the October 7 attack as part of his election campaign. He has accused Netanyahu’s government of resisting an independent investigation and seeking a politically appointed commission.

“Only a true vote will ensure both Netanyahu's replacement and the replacement of his path. Only a big Democratic bloc will guarantee that we replace the prime minister and that there will truly be a government of change. Netanyahu’s government has resisted establishing such a commission – saying a politically appointed commission should be formed instead – while the prime minister has declined to accept personal responsibility for the failures on his watch,” he said on the eve of the election.

Hung parliament could lead to another election

The Opposition’s collective lead in opinion polls does not guarantee that it will form a government. Neither political bloc is expected to win the 61 seats needed for a majority. Coalition talks and the choices made by smaller parties could determine who forms the next government.

Senior journalist Yaron Decel told ANI in Jerusalem that Opposition parties share a common goal of replacing Netanyahu, despite their differences on other issues.

“Mr. Netanyahu is a controversial prime minister for a very long time. So, people here and we see the Opposition bloc, the glue between the four parties is to try to replace the government of Mr. Netanyahu with a new government. Mr. Netanyahu has served as the prime minister the longest time ever, 19 years, not consecutive terms. And he is very controversial. And the bloc that is against Mr. Netanyahu would like him to be removed and replaced,” he said.

He predicted three possible outcomes. The first is a failure by both blocs to form a government, which could force Israel to hold another election within around four months. The second is a minority government led by Eisenkot’s Opposition alliance, with Arab parties abstaining during a confidence vote. The third is a national unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot.

Senior journalist Yaron Decel told ANI that the election could lead to three possible outcomes, as neither bloc is expected to win the 61 seats needed for a majority in the 120-member Knesset.

“One, that nobody will be able to form a government,” he said. This could force Israel to hold another election in around four months if parliament fails to produce a stable government.

The second possibility is a minority government led by Eisenkot’s Opposition bloc. Decel said the bloc could win around 56 seats, while the opposing side could secure 52. If two Arab parties abstain, the Opposition could gain enough votes to form a minority government.

The third option is a national unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot. “There is no bad blood among the two gentlemen, and they have to find a way to form such a government,” Decel said.

He added that a unity government could serve Israel’s interests given its ongoing wrs with Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.

How Israel will form its next government

After the votes are counted, President Isaac Herzog will consult the leaders of the elected parties before asking the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of forming a government to take the lead. That candidate will have 28 days to assemble a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension.

If the first attempt fails, another party leader may receive 28 days to form a government, without an extension. If that effort also falls short, a majority of 61 lawmakers can ask the president to assign the task to a particular member of parliament within a further 21-day period.

A government must secure the support of a majority of Knesset members voting to take office. A minority government can also be approved if abstentions leave it with more votes in favour than against, even when it has fewer than 61 supporters.

If all attempts to form a government fail, Israel will have to hold another election. Netanyahu would continue as caretaker prime minister until a new government takes office.