Owaisi-Chandrashekhar alliance enters UP poll battle: Can Dalit-Muslim formula challenge BJP, SP?

With the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections due in February 2027, a new political alliance has entered the state's electoral battle. AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi and Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) president Chandrashekhar Azad have joined hands to form the Samaj Parivartan Morcha, positioning themselves as a potential alternative to the BJP-led NDA and the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance.

In today’s episode of DNA, Rahul Sinha, Managing Editor of Zee News, conducted a detailed analysis of the new alliance, examining its Dalit-Muslim vote arithmetic, electoral prospects and the challenges it faces ahead of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections.

The alliance has announced that it will contest all 403 Assembly seats, with Chandrashekhar Azad as its Chief Ministerial face. It has also outlined three major promises: free education from Class 1 to Class 12, better healthcare facilities through well-equipped hospitals, and employment for educated youth while protecting everyone's dignity.

Education, healthcare and employment are at the centre of its agenda. The alliance will hold a 'Bahujan Samaj Maha Sammelan Maharally' in Lucknow on November 26, Constitution Day, after which it plans to release its formal manifesto.

Three political fronts in Uttar Pradesh

The alliance has described itself as the first front in Uttar Pradesh, rather than the third. However, the state's political landscape currently has three major formations: the BJP-led NDA, which has formed the government twice under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath; the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance; and the newly announced Samaj Parivartan Morcha.

Political alliances in Uttar Pradesh have traditionally relied on social coalitions and vote-sharing strategies. The BJP-led NDA's political formula has been described as 80-20, a formulation given by Yogi Adityanath during the 2022 Assembly elections. It broadly refers to voters who support nationalism, development, security and welfare schemes.

In response, the Samajwadi Party put forward its 95-5 formula, bringing together OBCs, Dalits, Muslims and people opposed to the policies of the state government.

The question now is what social and political formula the Owaisi-Chandrashekhar alliance will follow. While the two parties have not officially announced one, their respective political bases offer some clues.

Muslims account for around 19 per cent of Uttar Pradesh's population and remain central to Owaisi's politics. Chandrashekhar, meanwhile, seeks to build his support among Dalit voters, with Scheduled Castes accounting for around 21 per cent of the state's population.

Together, the two groups represent nearly 40 per cent of Uttar Pradesh's population. This is the social base around which the Samaj Parivartan Morcha hopes to build its political strength.

Dalit and Muslim vote patterns

Political analysts estimate that around 143 Assembly constituencies in Uttar Pradesh have a sizeable Muslim population. Of the 403 seats, 84 are reserved for Scheduled Castes, while around 100 constituencies are considered Dalit-dominated.

On paper, this gives the new alliance a potential social base across nearly 243 constituencies. However, its electoral prospects will depend on whether it can translate this support into votes.

The voting patterns from the 2022 Assembly elections highlight the challenge.

Among Dalit voters, the BSP remained the first choice, securing around 50 per cent of the vote. The BJP received 28 per cent, followed by the Samajwadi Party with 14 per cent and the Congress with 2 per cent. The BJP also won 65 of the 84 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes.

The Muslim vote showed a different pattern. The Samajwadi Party received around 79 per cent of Muslim votes, while the BJP secured 8 per cent and the BSP 7 per cent. The Congress, AIMIM and other parties together received around 6 per cent. The Samajwadi Party also won 31 Muslim MLAs in the election.

These figures underline the challenge for the new alliance. The BSP has traditionally been the preferred political choice among Dalit voters, while Muslim voters have largely backed the Samajwadi Party. Although the BSP's support base is considered weaker than before, a significant section of Dalit voters continues to support it.

Chandrashekhar is seeking to establish himself as a strong Dalit leader through his street-fighter image and political approach. Owaisi, meanwhile, is attempting to consolidate Muslim support through his speeches and appeal among minority voters. However, the INDIA bloc is also competing for the same vote bank.

Can the alliance convert its support into votes?

The electoral record of the two parties in 2022 highlights the scale of the challenge. Chandrashekhar's party contested 110 Assembly seats but failed to win any, securing just 0.13 per cent of the votes. AIMIM fielded candidates in 95 constituencies but also failed to win a seat, receiving only 0.49 per cent of the votes.

Together, the two parties secured less than one per cent of the total vote share in 2022. However, they contested separately at the time and are now entering the electoral battle as allies.

Their combined strength could help them expand their reach, but converting political support into votes will require a strong organisation and adequate resources. Neither party currently has an effective organisational network across the state, although both have a presence in certain districts and pockets.

Another challenge will be persuading voters to see the alliance as a credible alternative. Muslim voters have generally backed the party considered to be in the strongest position against the BJP, while a large section of Dalit voters continues to remain with the BSP.

The alliance will also need to ensure effective coordination between its workers and candidates. Bringing together two parties with different ideological positions and ensuring that their supporters transfer votes to one another could prove difficult.

A familiar political experiment in Uttar Pradesh

The attempt to bring Dalit and Muslim voters together is not new to Uttar Pradesh politics. Around 33 years ago, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kanshi Ram attempted a similar political combination.

In 1993, the Samajwadi Party and the BSP formed a government by bringing together Dalits, backward classes and Muslims. In 2007, Mayawati came to power through social engineering that combined Dalits, Muslims and Brahmins. The Samajwadi Party also won the 2012 Assembly elections by bringing together OBCs, Muslims and Dalits.

These political combinations show the importance of social coalitions in Uttar Pradesh's electoral history. Owaisi and Chandrashekhar are now attempting to build their own political base around a similar Dalit-Muslim combination.

However, the NDA's leaders have so far played down the alliance's prospects, with some describing it as a challenge for the Opposition itself. Leaders of the BJP and its allies have questioned its ability to translate its claims into electoral gains.

Even a small vote shift could matter

Despite the organisational and electoral challenges, the new alliance could influence the outcome in closely contested constituencies. In the 2022 Assembly elections, 49 seats were decided by a margin of fewer than 5,000 votes. In 11 of these constituencies, the difference between victory and defeat was less than 500 votes.

This makes every vote important, particularly in seats where the contest is close. Even a relatively small shift in support towards the Samaj Parivartan Morcha could affect the results and change the prospects of other parties.

The alliance's actual impact will become clearer as it builds its organisation, announces candidates and presents its manifesto. For now, its biggest test is whether the political strength claimed on paper can translate into votes on the ground.