The arithmetic of survival: Netanyahu’s final battle for power

Days before the vote, on Friday, October 23, two Israeli soldiers were shot dead near Hebron, a city in the West Bank, the Palestinian territory Israel controls. Within hours, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in a bulletproof vest. He promised to empty the neighbourhood the attackers came from, search every house, seize weapons and destroy what he called terrorist infrastructure, just as his forces had done in refugee camps. For decades Netanyahu has sold himself as "Mr Security", the one man who can keep Israel safe. The question now is whether that promise still convinces anyone.

On Tuesday, 27 October, Israelis vote for the first time since 7 October 2023, when fighters from Hamas, the armed group ruling Gaza, launched the deadliest attack in the country's history. Many call this the most important election Israel has ever held. A nation that has buried its dead, watched rockets fall on its cities and sent its young to war after war must now decide whom it trusts.

Four questions shape the vote. The first is safety. Hamas still holds ground in Gaza. Hezbollah, a powerful Iran-backed militia in neighbouring Lebanon, remains influential. Both are weaker, but neither is finished. Then there is Iran. Last year Israel and Iran bombed each other directly for the first time. This year that turned into open war, now paused by a ceasefire. Netanyahu points to that ceasefire, his campaign against Hezbollah and his close ties with President Donald Trump, who has endorsed him, as proof that he delivers.

The second question is Netanyahu himself. The election is, in effect, a referendum, a simple yes or no on his leadership. He has never accepted blame for 7 October, though according to several reports, warnings reached him beforehand, including tip-offs from the UAE and Egypt. He denies this; voters may not believe him. Most Israelis consider Iran's government a threat to their very existence, yet many question his strategy. He persuaded the United States to go to war against Iran, and the regime in Tehran still stands. He is also campaigning while standing trial on corruption charges, which he denies.

His record on protecting the homeland has been dented too. Iranian missiles got past the Iron Dome, Israel's shield system meant to shoot down incoming rockets. In a separate scare, a co-pilot on a Dubai–Tel Aviv flight tried to seize the aircraft and crash it into Tel Aviv; passengers and crew overpowered him and the plane landed safely in Saudi Arabia. Abroad, Israel's image has collapsed, from worldwide sympathy in late 2023 to isolation today. Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant, and Israel's friendships in the West have cooled.

The third question divides Israeli families. Every adult must serve in the army. But ultra-Orthodox Jews, a deeply religious community devoted to studying scripture, refuse, saying military service clashes with their faith. Netanyahu has largely protected this exemption. Parents whose children fight at the front find that bitterly unfair.

The fourth is money. Taxes have gone up to pay for war, and prices have crept higher. Struggling households rarely reward the leader in charge.

Across Israel's streets, two faces stare at each other from posters: Netanyahu of the Likud party, and the man who wants his job, Gadi Eisenkot. Eisenkot is a former army chief, once Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces. His party, Yashar, meaning "straight", is barely a year old, yet it has topped almost every opinion poll this summer. Behind him stands a broad camp. On 26 April 2026, former prime ministers Naftali Bennett (June 2021 to June 2022) and Yair Lapid (July to December 2022) formed a joint front called B'Yachad, Hebrew for "Together", led by Bennett. Alongside them are Avigdor Liberman, a former Defence Minister who leads Yisrael Beytenu, and Yair Golan, a former senior military officer heading the Democrats. Netanyahu's own Likud depends on far-right partners, Security Minister Ben-Gvir of Jewish Power and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich of Religious Zionism, both demanding the harshest line on Gaza, as well as the ultra-Orthodox parties.

Now the arithmetic. Israel's parliament, called the Knesset, has 120 seats. Unlike in India, voters choose a party, not an individual candidate. Seats are shared according to vote share: about 10 percent of votes earns roughly 12 seats. A party must win at least 3.25 percent nationwide to enter at all. One that just crosses that line gets about four seats, given to the first four names on its list. Anything below gets nothing.

To govern, a leader needs a majority, 61 of 120 seats. In almost 80 years no single party has managed that alone. Israel has therefore always been ruled by coalitions, groups of parties pooling their seats. If no one can reach 61, the country votes again. Elections are due every four years but often come early when governments collapse.

Polls give Netanyahu's camp around 50 seats and Eisenkot's camp somewhere in the low to mid-50s. Topping the polls does not mean winning: neither side reaches 61. That makes the Arab parties, expected to win roughly 14 seats, potential kingmakers.

Polling ends at 10 pm, exit polls follow that night, and official results must be declared within eight days. Even then, nothing is final until someone gathers 61 members.

Netanyahu has governed for just over 19 years in three spells: 1996 to 1999, 2009 to 2021 and since December 2022. He has been written off before and always returned. Whether a wounded but unbroken Israel allows him one more comeback is the answer Tuesday will deliver.