El Nino makes history as central Pacific Ocean touches unprecedented 30°C

The surface temperatures in the central part of the equatorial Pacific reached 30°C in mid-October 2026. It was a record-breaking day in terms of modern history and the climatic observation records. According to the NOAA data, an increasing El Nino phenomenon leads to warming of tropical oceans beyond all historical records, which causes significant concerns regarding upcoming weather conditions.

Record temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region

The WMO data indicates abnormal warming in the tropical Pacific.

Fast increase: The sea surface temperature anomaly in the region increased from 1.6°C above average in June to 2.5°C in August.

Projections: The model forecast predicts an increase up to 3.7°C above average in October-December.

Comparison with historical anomalies: If the predicted temperature anomaly takes place, it will break the previous record of 2.6°C that occurred during the 2015-2016 super El Nino.

Implications of the global climatic phenomenon

El Nino happens due to a weakening of trade winds, causing piling up of warm surface waters in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific.

This gigantic thermal engine influences the high-altitude jet streams in such a way that cloud and rainfall patterns at continental distances are disturbed. Given that the ocean heat drives the moisture transportation into the atmosphere, having a 30°C average in the Pacific seriously disrupts seasonal rainfall pattern in many continents.

Implications for India & South Asia

As stated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the 2026 southwest monsoon season ended with national rainfall being about 13% lower than the average.

Temperatures forecast: According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecast, higher-than-average temperatures will dominate in most areas of South Asia throughout winter.

Rainfall forecast: The below-average rainfall is expected in central and southern peninsular South Asia between October and December.

Duration: This El Niño event is going to continue at least until the beginning of 2027.