US midterm elections: Can Trump survive growing public anger? Why results matter for India and world

The United States is heading towards a crucial midterm election, with voters set to decide whether President Donald Trump and the Republican Party can retain their influence in Congress or face a setback. The outcome could have implications far beyond America, particularly for global conflicts, oil markets and trade relations.

In today’s episode of DNA, Rahul Sinha, Managing Editor of Zee News, conducted a detailed analysis of the US midterm elections, examining Trump's political position, his possible strategy in the event of defeat, and what the results could mean for countries such as India.

The election comes at a time of heightened tensions between the United States and Iran, concerns over attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty surrounding global oil supplies. Trump's approach towards Iran, including claims by one of his key allies that the US could launch a nuclear attack, has added to international concerns.

The results could also influence the proposed India-US trade deal, changes to Washington's visa policy and the broader relationship between New Delhi and the Trump administration. The campaign has also seen the issue of 'Abdul' emerge as a political talking point, with Trump's opponents facing divisions over the issue ahead of voting.

How do US midterm elections work?

Unlike presidential elections, midterm polls are held halfway through the President's four-year term. The President does not contest the election directly. Instead, voters elect members of Congress, deciding which party will control the two chambers of the US legislature for the remaining two years of the presidential term.

The US Congress has two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate.

The House of Representatives, which is comparable to India's Lok Sabha, has 435 seats. Representation is based on the population of each state, with an average of around 750,000 people represented by one seat. Members serve two-year terms, meaning all 435 seats are contested in every midterm election. The previous election was held in November 2024.

The Senate, which can be compared to India's Rajya Sabha, has 100 members. However, unlike India, where state legislators elect Rajya Sabha members, American voters directly elect their senators.

The United States has 50 states, and each state elects two senators, irrespective of its population. Senators serve six-year terms, with around one-third of the seats going to polls every two years.

This time, voters will elect members to all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the Senate.

Trump's approval rating falls ahead of midterms

Trump's position appears challenging as the country prepares to vote. Despite his energetic campaign appearances, rallies and confident public statements, his approval rating has fallen sharply.

When he returned to the White House in January 2025, his approval rating stood at 47 per cent. However, it has now dropped to 32 per cent ahead of the midterm elections, indicating growing dissatisfaction with his performance among American voters.

Midterm elections have traditionally been difficult for the party of the sitting US President. In 18 of the last 20 midterm elections, the President's party lost ground, making it a recurring political challenge for the ruling administration.

Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002 were the two Presidents whose parties managed to win midterm elections. Bush's victory came in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks.

Historically, the President's party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House of Representatives and four seats in the Senate during midterm elections. Seven major surveys conducted in the US this time are also predicting a setback for Trump's party.

Trump prepares to become 'Mr Veto' if Republicans lose

Trump has acknowledged the possibility of an electoral setback and indicated that he could adopt a different strategy if Republicans lose control of Congress. He has said that he would become 'Mr Veto' in the event of a midterm defeat.

The statement points to the President's constitutional power to reject legislation passed by Congress. Once a Bill clears both the House of Representatives and the Senate, it is sent to the White House for presidential approval. The President can sign it into law or veto it and return it to Congress.

If Democrats secure majorities in both chambers, they could push forward legislation that Trump opposes. However, as President, he could use his veto power to block such Bills, potentially leading to a prolonged political deadlock and forcing both sides to negotiate.

Trump's remarks suggest that even if Republicans lose control of Congress, he intends to use the powers of the presidency to defend his political agenda.

The midterm results will therefore be significant not only for Trump's domestic political standing but also for his administration's approach to Iran, global energy markets, trade negotiations and relations with India. Despite the challenges facing him, Trump also has some positive developments to draw on as the election approaches.